Yesterday (or two days ago, for the readers) I watched what seemed to me the most interesting match scheduled in the first round, i.e. Iga Swiatek vs. Alexa Noel. Noel was really unlucky because she got the worst draw possible. I honestly think that the conversion criteria of the WTA ranking into the junior ranking must be reviewed, in order to protect both seeded players and very strong players who have low junior rankings but high WTA rankings. Currently, this is the mechanism: “ATP 750 or better or WTA 400 or better will always be accepted at the bottom of the Main Draw Acceptance List”. Swiatek ranks around the 300th spot in the WTA, thus she was admitted to the main draw as unseeded. As a result, poor Alexa, even if she was the 4th seed, was scheduled to play against one of the strongest players in the board, already in the first round. Honestly, I would have found more fair if Swiatek was admitted as a (top) seeded player or, to the other extreme, not admitted at all lacking of necessary junior ranking: the solution currently adopted is, I think, the worst possible. Anyhow, that’s life.
I thought that Swiatek was the hot favourite of the match, and I foresaw that Noel wouldn’t gain more than six games overall. As usual, I was wrong: the match was much more tricky than I expected for Iga. The Polish girl took an immediate 3-0 lead thanks to one of her explosives starts, hitting a winner after another. Though, at this stage, she started to amuse herself with crazy drop shots: Iga owns that shot and, especially with her backhand, she can even disguise it well. Though it’s not the first time I see her start to hit a drop shot every two or three points, all from the most inconvenient positions; of course she misses them, she gets nervous and the quality of her game lowers until she can find again her mental balance again. Thanks to this moment of “craziness” Iga allowed Noel to enter into the match. But it was not only Iga’s fault: Noel played very well, she managed to equalize and shortly after to gain a 6-5 lead, a result which after the first 15 minutes of the match seemed unrealistic.
I think Iga followed the right strategy: she constantly pressed Noel on her backhand, which the American only slices and which she hits with a quite high trajectory; often she remains pinned to it and is forced to play defensively. Though, this time Alexa was very good in hitting her backhand very deep, in plying also some chops with the forehand, in being very patient and in waiting for her opponent to eventually overplay: the American accepted to play several points standing 4 metres behind the baseline, but her defence was very difficult to breach. Iga, on her side, had troubles to handle the American’s slow and weightless balls as she couldn’t use the opponent’s weight to generate power and this made winning solutions more difficult to be found. Plus, she was from time to time too impatient and wasted some points, whilst some other times she just played on her opponent backhand without looking for the necessary depth: each time the Polish was too short, Noel’s backhand became really dangerous as her ball virtually didn’t bounce (also, Iga has issues in handling low balls due to a western grip). I think Iga could have faced fewer troubles by insisting more on playing higher trajectories on Noel’s backhand (as slices on high balls become difficult to play) and by attacking charging the net more often: if attacked on her backhand Noel is able only to lob (still by slicing, a very difficult shot) or hit inoffensive passing shots. Each time Swiatek charged against Noel’s backhand won a point, except on one occasion due to a bad high volley played by the Polish.
Anyhow, the match went to the tie-break which was played quite well by both players. On 5-4 in her favour though, Noel hit one backhand too long and one too short, two mistakes which hurt. Swiatek didn’t convert a first set-point by missing an easy smash and shortly after it was her turn to concede a set-point, as she went into troubles handling a low slice; she solved the situation with a nice backhand and finally won the set thanks to a good long the line forehand winner.
In the second set, Noel’s level dropped a bit: maybe her confidence lowered and she lost a few times the right depth in her shots; as unforced increased a bit, for Iga was a easier to find winners or gain free points: sometimes the difference between a 7-6 and a 6-1 (as the second set ended) is made by just one point per game: 40-30 or 30-40 makes a hell lot of difference indeed.
Overall, Noel played well and she was a bit unlucky not to win the first set. Had she, the final result could have been different. Though I still wonder how a match between the two will finish in 5 year time, since it is foreseeable that a player as Swiatek growing up will miss not her 4th or 5th shot, but her 9th or 10th: will such a defensive tennis still be sustainable by the American? As per Iga, I wrote about her so many times: when she performs at her own level, she just plays a different sport: she only needs to find a bit of consistency, but she owns so much talent it would be morally fair she gave some of it to other players.
Overall, I think that up to now there have been no huge upsets in the girls’ tournament. The third round has to be played and all the top-seeded players (and Swiatek) are still in. Funnily enough, tomorrow (or today) the rematches of the semifinals of the Italian Open are scheduled: Cocciaretto will play against Molinaro whilst Naito will play against Danish Clara Tauson. I think Molinaro and Tauson are the favourites in their respective matches. Iga will play a fascinating match against Clara Burel, whom I saw playing some beautiful tennis during this tournament; though, the most interesting contest will be in my view the one between Xin Yu Wang and Cori Gauff who, up to now has been unstoppable. Osorio Serrano will find a difficult opponent in the Canadian Fernandez, a player I’ve never seen but who has distinguished herself in this first part of the season by winning the Brasilian Grade A (having beaten in the process Noel and Tauson). I guess Carle has a change against the other Wang (Xiyu), whilst the first seed Liang is the hot favourite against the American McNally: the latter, though, seems to be in good form, as she has beaten 6-1 6-1 the strong Maltese Curmi and in the second round the Swiss Sun in three tight sets.
